The efficient labour market hypothesis – on passion

Love your job and never work a day in your life.

It’s a great platitude to work for a passion. Unfortunately, unless you have a niche interest, following your passion is unlikely to result in financial upside.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

This hypothesis states that no one can beat the market, because the market is already the entire collection of everyone’s collective wisdom. Any inefficiency is quickly stamped out by market participants keen to make a profit from that inefficiency. For instance, if Apple shares were undervalued, any number of shareholders would jump in immediately and buy the shares, driving the price up until it is correctly valued.

Granted, the hypothesis is often not absolutely true. There are transaction costs, and agency problems that investors have which cause them to behave irrationally. The job market is not hardly as efficient as the stock market. However, understanding the adjustment mechanism of the stock market means that one can understand why some jobs pay more or less than others.

The depressed pay of “socially-helpful” jobs

A large number of individuals are drawn to do good, or pursue a career that is deemed to be of prestige those around them. Since wages are set by demand and supply in the job market, wages are depressed by a supply of passionate people. That is partially why salaries in teaching and medicine have stagnated, despite the critical social purpose of these careers.

Perhaps a way to finding a fulfilling and sustainable career is to identify unique niches. If you derive joy in amending slide decks for the umpteenth time or running excel models, investment banking might be a great calling. Perhaps tapping out code to change a product feature is a calling. Then software engineering could be a lucrative and enjoyable hustle.

Skillsets

Of course, passion is but one factor in the labour market. Specialised skillsets and experiences are another aspect that could drive lower supply of labour. Although most people would gravitate towards the lucrative skillsets and hence even out the potential employee surplus available, the level of demand could change based on macroeconomic changes. In fact, software engineering used to be a place for students that did not do well, or the nerds who really had an eye out for programming for the sake of it. As such, when the dot.com boom exploded, these previous misfits suddenly found themselves sitting on a set of urgently needed skills that few others had prepared for.

Entrepreneurship 

That is why entrepreneurial ideas tend not to emerge from a contrarian point of view, but from a boring perspective. The sexy ideas are often tarpits – those that might have worked are already startups and solved, while there might be pain-points that are too small to be monetised. The successful ideas, executed well, are tools to help companies improve their accounting, or improve their cybersecurity – boring!

Entrepreneurial ideas are also one of the few ways one can combine passion with making outsized amounts in your career; by creating your own niche, you reduce the competitive forces available to reduce your surplus. 

How to craft your career

Alternatively, it could be helpful to think about what unique skill sets/passions you have or would like to possess when it comes to your career, as well as the market demand for those skills/passions. If there are existing companies that need these skills and are willing to pay you top dollar for your participation, you’re in luck! You may also spot a gap at the intersection of industries that your varied experiences may inform – which is perfect for a start-up and entrepreneurship.